Discussion:
FSU
(too old to reply)
RoddyMcCorley
2023-12-04 07:40:13 UTC
Permalink
They got hosed by the committee. Absolutely no justification unless it
is "we must have an SEC team." And even that does not work.

The CFP cmte has too much subjective leeway to begin with.

Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
--
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In
practice, there is."
JGibson
2023-12-04 12:58:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by RoddyMcCorley
They got hosed by the committee. Absolutely no justification unless it
is "we must have an SEC team." And even that does not work.
The CFP cmte has too much subjective leeway to begin with.
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
I did go and try to find the six computers that the BCS used. Sagarin no longer have their "score-free" formulas available, but I think the others have their equivalents still. I know Don does his NOTBCS rankings, which I think use more computers.

I find the following:
Colley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida State
Billingsley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia
Massey BCS: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Alabama. 4. Texas, 5. Florida State
Anderson & Hester: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Alabama
Wolfe: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas
Sagarin*: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas, 5. Penn State
unclejr
2023-12-05 02:33:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by RoddyMcCorley
They got hosed by the committee. Absolutely no justification unless it
is "we must have an SEC team." And even that does not work.
The CFP cmte has too much subjective leeway to begin with.
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
I did go and try to find the six computers that the BCS used. Sagarin no longer have their "score-free" formulas available, but I think the others have their equivalents still. I know Don does his NOTBCS rankings, which I think use more computers.
Colley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida State
Billingsley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia
Massey BCS: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Alabama. 4. Texas, 5. Florida State
Anderson & Hester: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Alabama
Wolfe: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas
Sagarin*: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas, 5. Penn State
Sagarin is borked. ($1)
JGibson
2023-12-05 02:59:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by unclejr
Post by RoddyMcCorley
They got hosed by the committee. Absolutely no justification unless it
is "we must have an SEC team." And even that does not work.
The CFP cmte has too much subjective leeway to begin with.
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
I did go and try to find the six computers that the BCS used. Sagarin no longer has his "score-free" formula available, but I think the others have their equivalents still. I know Don does his NOTBCS rankings, which I think use more computers.
Colley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida State
Billingsley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia
Massey BCS: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Alabama. 4. Texas, 5. Florida State
Anderson & Hester: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Alabama
Wolfe: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas
Sagarin*: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas, 5. Penn State
Sagarin is borked. ($1)
Yeah, that's why that version got banned in the BCS days, and they made him use a score-free version. But the version he had to use in those days no longer seems to exist.
Con Reeder, unhyphenated American
2023-12-05 15:15:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by JGibson
Post by unclejr
Post by RoddyMcCorley
They got hosed by the committee. Absolutely no justification unless it
is "we must have an SEC team." And even that does not work.
The CFP cmte has too much subjective leeway to begin with.
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
I did go and try to find the six computers that the BCS used. Sagarin no longer has his "score-free" formula available, but I think the others have their equivalents still. I know Don does his NOTBCS rankings, which I think use more computers.
Colley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida State
Billingsley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia
Massey BCS: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Alabama. 4. Texas, 5. Florida State
Anderson & Hester: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Alabama
Wolfe: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas
Sagarin*: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas, 5. Penn State
Sagarin is borked. ($1)
Yeah, that's why that version got banned in the BCS days, and they
made him use a score-free version. But the version he had to use in
those days no longer seems to exist.
Sagarin appears to have given up the biz, as he has yet to release basketball
ratings this year.
--
Trans Kids are the new Gucci Handbag for the Upper Middle Class Wine
Mommies who need attention.
JGibson
2023-12-05 15:27:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American
Post by JGibson
Post by unclejr
Post by RoddyMcCorley
They got hosed by the committee. Absolutely no justification unless it
is "we must have an SEC team." And even that does not work.
The CFP cmte has too much subjective leeway to begin with.
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
I did go and try to find the six computers that the BCS used. Sagarin no longer has his "score-free" formula available, but I think the others have their equivalents still. I know Don does his NOTBCS rankings, which I think use more computers.
Colley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida State
Billingsley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia
Massey BCS: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Alabama. 4. Texas, 5. Florida State
Anderson & Hester: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Alabama
Wolfe: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas
Sagarin*: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas, 5. Penn State
Sagarin is borked. ($1)
Yeah, that's why that version got banned in the BCS days, and they
made him use a score-free version. But the version he had to use in
those days no longer seems to exist.
Sagarin appears to have given up the biz, as he has yet to release basketball
ratings this year.
Hmmm.... He was doing college football still, so I'm not sure what happened here. Everyone's gone to Pomeroy for college basketball, I think. But we don't have an equivalent of Pomeroy for college football. I know we have S&P+, FPI, and FEI but none really get at similar data as Pomeroy or have the equivalent sub-breakdowns that Pomeroy has.
The NOTBCS Guy
2023-12-05 16:35:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by unclejr
Post by RoddyMcCorley
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
I did go and try to find the six computers that the BCS used. Sagarin no longer has his "score-free" formula available, but I think the others have their equivalents still. I know Don does his NOTBCS rankings, which I think use more computers.
Correct - I use whatever computers are available on the Massey composite site at around 6:30 PM Eastern on Monday (although I do tend to wait until the Friday after the championship game for the final rankings, just to be sure I can get as many as I can).

Speaking of which - no, there are none that have Georgia and FSU ranked 1 and 2, and even if there were, having any of the playoff teams beat two of the others in the same time period could very easily vault that team above FSU, so if FSU wants to invent its own national championship (and that assumes it can beat Georgia in the first place), it has some work to do.
Post by unclejr
Colley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida State
Billingsley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia
Massey BCS: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Alabama. 4. Texas, 5. Florida State
Anderson & Hester: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Alabama
Wolfe: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas
Sagarin*: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas, 5. Penn State
Sagarin is borked. ($1)
Yeah, that's why that version got banned in the BCS days, and they made him use a score-free version. But the version he had to use in those days no longer seems to exist.
Also correct - Sagarin stopped his score-free one when he no longer needed it.
I think one of the others - I want to say Billingsley - no longer has its score-free version either.
I know Colley is still score-free, and I think Massey's is as well.

Besides, to be a "true" BCS, at least in later years (after AP withdrew for some reason), you need to bring back the Harris Interactive poll. Step 1: find someone to conduct a seance so you can ask John Wooden who his top 25 are.
JGibson
2023-12-05 17:00:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by The NOTBCS Guy
Post by unclejr
Post by RoddyMcCorley
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
I did go and try to find the six computers that the BCS used. Sagarin no longer has his "score-free" formula available, but I think the others have their equivalents still. I know Don does his NOTBCS rankings, which I think use more computers.
Correct - I use whatever computers are available on the Massey composite site at around 6:30 PM Eastern on Monday (although I do tend to wait until the Friday after the championship game for the final rankings, just to be sure I can get as many as I can).
Speaking of which - no, there are none that have Georgia and FSU ranked 1 and 2, and even if there were, having any of the playoff teams beat two of the others in the same time period could very easily vault that team above FSU, so if FSU wants to invent its own national championship (and that assumes it can beat Georgia in the first place), it has some work to do.
Post by unclejr
Colley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida State
Billingsley: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia
Massey BCS: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Alabama. 4. Texas, 5. Florida State
Anderson & Hester: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Alabama
Wolfe: 1. Washington, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas
Sagarin*: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas, 5. Penn State
Sagarin is borked. ($1)
Yeah, that's why that version got banned in the BCS days, and they made him use a score-free version. But the version he had to use in those days no longer seems to exist.
Also correct - Sagarin stopped his score-free one when he no longer needed it.
I think one of the others - I want to say Billingsley - no longer has its score-free version either.
I know Colley is still score-free, and I think Massey's is as well.
Massey's main page (when it comes up, having trouble with that today) has his score-based predictive rankings, but he still has his Massey BCS rankings available on the composite ranking list.
JE Corbett
2023-12-05 19:15:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by RoddyMcCorley
They got hosed by the committee. Absolutely no justification unless it
is "we must have an SEC team." And even that does not work.
The CFP cmte has too much subjective leeway to begin with.
Go back to a fairly objective formula like the BCS had.
--
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In
practice, there is."
I agree with you completely. The idiocy goes back to the criteria of picking "the four best teams".
That is a completely subjective judgement and is in the eye of the beholder. If I were to pick what
I think are the four best teams, the would be in no particular order, Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia,
and Alabama. Ohio State had been #2 for most of the rankings on only lost a road game by 6 points
to the team that is now #1. Georgia was #1 for most of the year and lost by 3 points to #4 Alabama.

Others likely have their own opinion about who the four best teams are which is exactly the point.
There is no way of knowing who the four best teams are. It is pure guesswork. What we can measure
is accomplishments. An undefeated champion of a Power 5 conference has accomplished as much
as they possibly could. No way such a team should be left out of the playoff unless there were 5
such teams. In that unlikely event, they could turn to tiebreakers like strength of schedule and wins
over the highest ranked teams. Given the results we have, there was no excuse for leaving out FSU.
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