Discussion:
Before you judge a coach’s math skills, read this
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J***@protonmail.com
2019-09-11 03:53:08 UTC
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Imagine you’re given a page of problems involving addition, subtraction, and multiplication of two digit numbers. Suppose you had all the time in the world to solve these problems and you could solve them in the environment of your choosing.

I bet that you would get them all right. Maybe, just maybe, a silly mistake along the way

Now imagine that I gave you the same sheet of problems, gave you a shirt time limit, and while your solving the problems, I occasionally stabbed you with a needle or gave you a small electrical shock. How many mistakes would you make then?
b***@gmail.com
2019-09-11 09:04:31 UTC
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I’m. Trying to figure out how long the shirt is.
michael anderson
2019-09-11 13:09:30 UTC
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hence the(not totally absurd) suggestion of having an expert madden player on the sidelines to help coaches make these calls and all that's the only thing he has to do.....

But in the past coaches generally make a mistake the same way- make the far too conservative call. So that would point towards a pattern of bad decision making, not random bad decision making due to some external stressors. Because if that were the case we should expect to see coaches make wreckless 'go for it' decisions for example, and I cant remember ever seeing this.
Ken Olson
2019-09-11 14:04:36 UTC
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Post by michael anderson
hence the(not totally absurd) suggestion of having an expert madden player on the sidelines to help coaches make these calls and all that's the only thing he has to do.....
But in the past coaches generally make a mistake the same way- make the far too conservative call. So that would point towards a pattern of bad decision making, not random bad decision making due to some external stressors. Because if that were the case we should expect to see coaches make wreckless 'go for it' decisions for example, and I cant remember ever seeing this.
Nagumo's Dillema
J***@protonmail.com
2019-09-11 15:14:22 UTC
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Another thing to consider is that if you fire a coach on the spot for making a bad last minute decision, then you’re going to have to incur all the cost and disruption involved with a coaching change only to hire another coach who’s probably going to make the same decision as the previous guy.
michael anderson
2019-09-12 02:34:42 UTC
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Even for the madden player making these decisions in the pressure cooker is a lot different than making them in your living room. Have you ever coached before?
I agree that coaches should hire more math guys, but I wouldn’t recommend a random madden player. These decisions aren’t always as cut and dry as you’re making them, for example the down-9-minute-to-go situation. Even the down-14-should-we-go-for-2 situation isn’t so cut-and-dry. Your calculation was based on the probability of an average offense converting against an average defense. The probability of *your* offense converting against *their* defense is the relevant number, but that’s much harder to measure.
eh yeah I guess, but the cushion in the probabilities is so large that this argument for that example doesn't really hold up. And to take it further- if there is an extraordinary difference in the probability vs average and yours/theirs, you have to look at that going into OT as well. If your offense is so overpowered relative to their defense that the 50% average drops to 30%, how does that translate to your OT chances because that is what you will be playing for them? Wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to pass up on a 2 pt conversion because getting the two yards is such a daunting task relative to average than look forward to playing that same defense in OT....on a short field where lots of similar situations are going to happen(and mandated to happen past a couple OTs when you have to go for 2)
xyzzy
2019-09-11 13:49:22 UTC
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Post by J***@protonmail.com
Imagine you’re given a page of problems involving addition, subtraction, and multiplication of two digit numbers. Suppose you had all the time in the world to solve these problems and you could solve them in the environment of your choosing.
I bet that you would get them all right. Maybe, just maybe, a silly mistake along the way
Now imagine that I gave you the same sheet of problems, gave you a shirt time limit, and while your solving the problems, I occasionally stabbed you with a needle or gave you a small electrical shock. How many mistakes would you make then?
For you and me, sure. But for someone who is paid millions of dollars a year to do those math problems under pressure, the expectations are a little higher.
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